26th Annual Meeting and Symposium of the
Desert Tortoise Council, March 16-18, 2001
Abstracts

The Dynamic Geography of Extinction

Rob Channell
Fort Hays State University, Hays, KS 67601

Predictions based on macroecological patterns and island biogeography theory have suggested that the final population of a declining species should be located near the center of the species' historical range. In previous research, I have found that this pattern of range contraction was not realized. Range remnants and final populations were found in the periphery of the historical range significantly more often than near the center. This peripheral bias held true for species from most regions and taxonomic groups. These previous analyses of range contraction have been limited, as I have only looked at historical and current distributions. In this research, I link these two stages with a trajectory of predicted decline based on the peripheral bias and its hypothesized cause. An analysis of these decline trajectories provides a counter-intuitive result that has important implications for the development of conservation priorities.